St. Matthews, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS63 KLMK 062352
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Saturday, showers and thunderstorms move east through southern
  Indiana and central Kentucky. Gusty winds should be expected.

* Calm weather Sunday - Monday, until pattern changes with light
  showers Tuesday and a line of moderate rain through midweek along
  with warm temperatures still.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley currently sits between surface high pressure
to the east and an approaching low to the west, resulting in a
tightening pressure gradient. South winds which have gusted to around
25 mph have pushed temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Cumulus have developed in the
warm air mass. A few isolated showers could develop through the rest
of the afternoon into tonight, but chances remain low.

Tonight, the surface low, to the west over Kansas, will quickly
slide to near the Great Lakes as it drags a cold front through the
Ozarks towards the CWA. South winds increase as the front nears,
keeping low temperatures in the 60s. Precipitable water values
increase from around 1.1" early in the night to near 1.5". Dry
conditions are expected to last for most of the night, but in the
moist environment an isolated shower remains possible ahead of the
main line of convection.

Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms quickly begin to move into
Dubois County between 12-14z. With the northeast to southwest
orientation of the line, our southern Indiana counties will likely
see precipitation before the line moves into central Kentucky. By
around 17-18z, expecting the line to be near Interstate 65 before
the eastern side of the CWA is reached around 20-21z.

Model soundings continue to show a marginal environment for strong
thunderstorms. Currently believe most convection will remain sub-
severe. MLCAPE values are expected to fall between 500-750 J/kg with
DCAPE values under 400 J/kg. Cloud cover ahead of the line could
help to limit instability. 0-6 km shear will be strong enough,
around 40 knots, to support organized severe weather, but
unidirectional shear will help to limit the tornado risk. Gusty
winds are the greatest threat with some small hail possible, but
moist sounding profiles and narrow hodographs look to limit the
threat. High temperatures are expected to climb back into the low
70s in parts of southern Indiana to the low 80s in parts of the Lake
Cumberland area as dew points reach the low 60s.

Saturday night, the bulk of the precipitation is expected to end
early as the main line of convection moves east out of the CWA, but
after a dry period, a skinnier line of broken precipitation is
expected to move east through the region along the actual cold
front. This could take the rest of the night to get precipitation to
come to an end near Clinton County, but with that said, most people
will see a mostly dry night. The front will cause cold air advection
to drop temperatures in southern Indiana to the low 40s while the
Clinton County area only falls into the mid 50s closer to the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Sunday morning, despite a few showers possible in our southernmost
communities,  skies will eventually clear west to east as a cold
front clears the area in the afternoon. With a surface high pressure
moving in behind the cold front, clear or mostly sunny skies will
prevail by late afternoon and a general westerly flow. Highs on
Sunday will range in the low to upper 60s with dry conditions. Calm
weather will last at least through Monday morning as ridging in the
upper levels will try to build over the Ohio River Valley. Monday
morning lows will be a little cooler in the low to upper 40s though
temperatures will warm quickly as a SW flow from a building ridge
returns to the area. Clear skies with calm weather continues and
highs will range in the low to upper 70s.

Weather pattern changes overnight Monday and into Tuesday as
moisture feeding in from the Gulf ahead of an incoming trough from
the west will bring in low level clouds and some light to moderate
rainfall rates throughout the day on Tuesday. Morning lows are still
mild in the upper 50s to low 60s, under continuous SW flow. WAA
along with this moisture transport will create light rain showers at
times with some breaks in showers and muggy. Total QPF remains low,
and long range guidance has a general agreement on rainfall totals,
with everyone remaining below 0.2" Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be
warm in the mid to upper 70s. Remaining on the warm side of the
incoming trough, lows will be mild Tuesday night and into Wednesday
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Though the timing of this incoming trough on Wednesday isn`t nailed
down yet, a line of showers and storms are possible sometime late
Wednesday morning lingering into the evening hours. We could see
additional rainfall totals of around an inch in some areas, as both
the lift associated with the trough and moisture being supplied from
the deep south associated with the SW flow of a cut off low, rain
chances could linger into Thursday morning. Eventually, rain does
clear and a NW flow cools Thursday highs to near the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR flight categories are expected through this evening and most of
the overnight. There have been a few isolated showers this evening
but with the loss of daytime heating this activity should diminish
and so should some of the SCT mid-level clouds with the steady SW
winds around 10kts.

The main impact comes with a line of strong to potential severe
storms after 12z tomorrow. Main impacts will be gusty winds and low
VIS from these storms as they work through the area. Behind it will
be some lingering showers. We will also likely see lowering CIGs
ahead of the rain then should see a return to mid-level CIGs and VFR
into the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BTN